Fog of Diplomatic Chaos and Serious Terrorists’ Counter Offensive. What to Make of it?

While Geneva talks were doomed from the start since there were wrong players (terrorists) or not all players at the table with notable absence of YPG and on the top of it we have massive reorientation of rhetoric of post coup Turkey and Erdogan “fake” Syrian peace offensive officially bought by Russia more for propaganda reason than as a genuine change in Turkish policies which are staunchly pro-western only because there is money there. So we hear “suppose” return to normalization between Turkey and Russia.

Nonsense, it is both sides’ political ploy to be seen distancing themselves from US position and especially Russia wants Erdogan to say that it is the US that is an enemy of MENA political order which would be much more kindly transmitted to the western audience conditioned as attack dogs against Russians no matter what. So US overtures like “we’re still friends” after new Turkish PM says they are not friends etc., numerous times.

And here we come to true reason for staged Turkish coup, namely, now an open fact that US wants to partition Syria into some fiefdoms administered from tel-Aviv which means creation of Kurdish statelets in Syria and even in Iraq under US protectorate and that what makes Erdogan furious even if he was one of instigators and accomplices of this US organized and executed proxy war against Assad.

Many would point out that Erdogan supported ANF and Islamic State from 2011 on so why no he complains about possible partition and disintegration of Syria. In fact he himself applying skillfully a “democratic” charade to take power for his Islamic brotherhood comrades envisioned the same fate for Syria namely a “democratic elections (when Assad is gone), new central government denominated by Islamic brotherhood (majority of Sunnis in Syria) emerges and while officially Syria as a state will continue, a close political alliance between Ankara and Damascus would be forged and spread a pan Arabic movement similarly to Arab Ba’ath party secularist movement emerged 60 years ago, but this time it would be religions movement under guise of a “benign” Sultan of Ankara and new Ottoman empire 2.0.

So here is the existential conflict between Turks and US and why US is pushing it so openly by directly warming to and supporting with its military power, YPG/PYD a Syrian reincarnation of PKK is a mystery or just monument to US stupidity or more likely deliberate sowing of more chaos.

But make no mistake Turkey is done it for leverage, and they do not intend to leave western connections or NATO while facing all conflicted MENA or Russia that is really unable to remove western ties from her economy and even political connotation of their oligarchic class.

So let not get carry away with “friendship” between Turkey and Russians, since it is more or less tactical agreement to build up a domestic political propaganda positions as “independent/opposing from US hegemonic ambitions” as well as conceal a new east-west arm race on global scale.

Also while it is good to finally hear that China officially took Syrian side of the conflict while before mostly was engaged in cooperation with Russians in their efforts in Syria. Of course it is not a change of course which is still to fight for certain respect, equal standing with the US but a response to verbal aggression and even military maneuvering in south China sea.

Only in this context we have sudden agreement between Turkey and Iran and surprisingly Russians which amounts to join fighting of PKK and their Syrian reincarnations YPG/PYD on all territories which translated in Russians abandoning Kurds and already resulted in fighting in Hasaka between PYD militia and SAA and SAAF attacking Kurds position for a first time since the war began [with some casualties], now considered as US proxies (like terrorists) not as neutral players acting before upon direct agreement with Assad regime to counteract the ISIL terror.

In such a geopolitical situation, changing alliances[ diplomatic thaw with Israel and Turkey] as an imbecile would have predicted five years ago but not US state dept, as I pointed out numerous times before since this phony ceasefire that amounted to nothing, a perspective of peaceful solution to the conflict is getting more and more distant and unachievable, as Lebanon conflict should teach us, may last 40 years on and off of continuing war and carnage and death ending up in stalemate and no viable solution for peace.

Is this what’s coming to Syria? Is my prediction of quagmire due to missed opportunity of February, 2016 real? Was this perhaps the only chance to destroy terrorists capability for war and end the strive? Unfortunately, it is what it looks like. And that make all the new deaths including children mostly killed, by terrorists but in some part by Assad regime and that including Russia truly senseless since the politics of war as it deteriorated in recent months, led to nowhere, and all the pain and suffering was clearly in vain, but that’s the story of all wars, all carnage fueled by money, greed and ambition having nothing to do with state goals and intentions. War is hell and hellishly manipulated for propaganda purposes images attest to that.

Also as far as recent media-wise developments are concerned, while US government tone became somewhat ambiguous, the MSM anti-Russian propaganda rhetoric reach zenith, in the context of electorate hysteria about Trump peace with Russian utterances, with assigning most of Syrian crimes committed but US friendly terrorist allies to Russia and Assad regime, who guess what, still must go even if in rennet weeks the US and Turkey admitted stabilizing effect of Assad on the war.

Finally Russian Federation officially disclosed combat deaths since 2015:

1.Fedor Zhuravlev

2.Oleg Peshkov

3.Alexander Pozynich

4.Ivan Cheremisin

5.Alexander Prokhorenko

6,7,Okladnikov Andrei and Victor Pankov

8.Anton Erygin

9.Andrew Timoshenkov

10.Michael Shirokopoyas

11,12,Ryafagat Khabibulin and Evgeny Dolgin

13.Nikita Shevchenko

14.Vadim Kostenko. Non-combat loss: suicide on the base.

The full list of official Russian casualties although it is likely at least twenty to fifty more than listed:

http://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/3445013

In fact the number could reach fifty if we count all those who were injured and died within days outside the immediate combat area, in Syria or back in Russia after week or months of medical treatment. Also there are estimated another twenty or more deaths of Russian soldiers or contractors on clandestine missions or due to friendly fire, all so far unconfirmed. A RF disclosure is a step in right direction as I have been advocating from late 2015 we need more regular updates.

 

A human and other costs of war must not be hidden to public; the pressure to end the war must persist against interests of abhorrent merchants of death.

Continue reading “Fog of Diplomatic Chaos and Serious Terrorists’ Counter Offensive. What to Make of it?”

Little Syrian Stalingrad and US Word Game.

While somewhat buried in the headlines Syrian war not only continues but substantially escalated from March low and sorry to say much of the escalation comes from refreshed and re-supplied by US alliance terrorists as I was writing about for last several months, thousands of new civilians and military casualties on both sides and all frontlines seems to move daily on tactical levels while strategically situation can be characterized as quasi-stalemate and that includes the situation in Aleppo where frontlines are moving constantly and after SAA advanced recently similarity painful set backs occurs as I documented he re as well.

Some coined that situation in Aleppo as a little Stalingrad as we see although on much smaller scale with shared characteristic two factors: wider no man land changing hands regularly as well as strategic importance and meaning of potential victory or defeat in Aleppo which would definitely switch military and political momentum. One thing is for sure, Syrian people will lose again because that in West Aleppo there are 1.5 million of civilians now attacked by “moderate” beheaders even more fiercely than before.

As MoA reports SAA instigate siege of East Aleppo turned just recently into a siege of West Aleppo by ANF terrorists and over a millions people were cut off from supplies from Damascus:

The Jihadis retreated after their first three attacks but renewed their efforts with fresh troops on the next day. This time they concentrated on one focal point. Another frontal assault throughout Friday failed, but a fifth major strike followed in the darkness of Friday night. A total of five vehicle borne suicide bombs broke the defense line of the Syrian government forces and Jihadi forces stormed into the wide area of the Artillery Academy.

I must give credit to author who does excellent reporting especially reporting for lies of MSM about Syrian war but his political guts are somewhat bias toward Russians, which skews his opinions about the situation which Aleppo situation is an example.

One cannot understand what’s going on in Aleppo and elsewhere without acknowledging Russian blunder or conscious calculated decision in February, 2016 to go with this fake ceasefire, what a kindergartener would easily conclude was aimed from US side, to arm rebels in new weaponry and increase their ranks.

In any way it would have been called blunder, especially that the ceasefire broke Russian coalition military momentum, a push toward to Turkish border to cut supplies there, as would dictate any sound military strategy, Russian or not, seen as critical for victory.

That did not happen, Syria did not regain sovereignty of their border, and a critical momentum was lost. Later we found out that even possible wider geopolitical game of may be preventing Turkish invasion, that would never happen for other internal reason, as we know now as well as eastern NATO expansion that actually happened, none of that open hostility beyond propaganda itself against Russian strategic geopolitical interest were avoided. So what this ceasefire was all about I repeatedly ask on this blog? I hesitate to say that but I do not see any Russian reason for it but humanitarian mission of help to besieged Syrians in all the enclaves surrounded cut off from supplies.

Now the strategic situation is a classical stalemate since strengthen Assad was loaded with new weapons and air force upgraded significantly and trained, but for Russians I am sorry to say it looks like a quagmire exactly a result D.C. neocons were counting on.
While even Putin started to make noises that US attitude is disingenuous, not really seeking peace, which any kindergartener would know by now, latest US “offensive of peace” was a lexical one.

Instead of attacking terrorists or just stop giving them money, weapons and supports we have learned from murderous US administration a Orwellian war propaganda instead.

Yes Orwellian, not Orwellianesque but straight 1984 style Orwellian bullshit namely renaming enemy so they could be a considered/reclassified as friends openly for purposes of more support, this time officially “legal” support as well as for MSM propaganda purposes son attacks on Assad and Russian could be intensified.

And hence it has been proclaimed from the Hill that old good al-Qaeda in Syria or Al-Nusra Front terrorist organization has been relabeled supposedly by themselves as Jabhat ash-Sham or whatever and nicely quit Al-Qaeda worldwide affiliates and hence all became moderate democracy loving, charity organization with guns and long knives, if you believe MSM lies.

No propaganda stooges asked if the same murderous commanders will continue under new name and the same troops will continue to fight who, as US documents indicate, committed international war crimes on civilians, crimes that have no statutory limits for pursuing as a legal matter or that in their ranks there are many US trained and equipped groups that joined the ANF for money and that effectively made US supporter of terrorists, war criminals, which you and me would cost a prison term if we gave a weapon to somebody who gave it to terrorists especially that there was not a case of US sovereign immunity since official stand of US was against ANF labeled by US and UN as terrorists.

War spurs extreme criminality and US and others are deeply engaged in the Syrian war and conditions of chaos it created. Will this chaos engulf Russians intervention as well? Will Russian play the US deceitful game drawing Russians into a quandary?

A mini-Vietnam or mini-Afghanistan quagmire calling for a decision to pullout or to escalate. As we know US never stops or withdraws unless soundly defeated so they escalated with their proxy war against Russia and Russians hesitated.

But this recent Artillery academy setback is not an isolated incident over last three months SAA ceded territory of al-Eis, al-Hader, and Touman south/south-west Aleppo area, and this temporary bridge of siege at the Academy is one of many for which no SAA answer was found so far.

A partial answer to that is the lack of Russian air capabilities after mostly withdrawal from Syria in March, an particularity I talking not about assault against strategic logistics bases and troop movement bombings which continues although with less intensity but a direct close range air support for offensive and defensive operations, directed until February 2016 by Russian liaison officers on the ground augmented by SAA intelligence.

So while more Syrian precision bombing occurs, SAA , Iranians and Hezbollah are left to fend themselves with some attack helicopter support that are vulnerable to new AA missiles supplied to terrorists. And that was cause of increased military casualties among Iranians and clear political snag in the Russian Iranian relations as I have reported on recently.

About 18 months ago Assad fate was uncertain now he, in current state of fighting forces, will not be militarily dislodged due to Russian modernization and weapons supplies, the same weapons they refused to supplied after 2011 even when they were paid in full in 2008.

Would the Syrian war be over if Russian helped Assad as they were obliged by treaties back in 2011?

I may say that it would have been likely outcome and very likely we would not have about 200 thousands of civilians casualties that for sure.

Continue reading “Little Syrian Stalingrad and US Word Game.”