A Fissure within Russian Coalition Confirmed.

If there was not enough trouble as a result of botched Syrian ceasefire that resulted in strengthening of terrorists and rebels and weakening of position of Russian coalition, sadly mostly due to Putin disastrous dealing with the US regarding global geopolitical issues of new Cold War. Yes, Putin seems to submit to US extortion threats relating to NATO expansion and arms race and temporarily frozen Ukraine war with potentially grave consequence to the Syrian Nation but more importantly to the world peace as I posited in my previous post:

https://syrianwarupdate.wordpress.com/2016/05/28/did-russians-secretly-switch-sides/

I wrote few months ago:

“Utter lack of interest, motivation or intention to achieve any true political solution, to end pain and suffering of Syrian people has been impudently demonstrated by the West set on unconditional overthrowing legal, multiple times elected Assad regime.

And that was augmented by Russian unwillingness to really push against the US for any sustainable solution, including pressure Turkey and NATO to abandon support for terrorists once Putin vulnerability to political extortion has been previously revealed in Ukraine and now in Syria. All those conditions are set for prolong bleeding of Syrian state and economy for next 10 to 15 years as long as western support for terrorists continues unabated.”

And now on the top of that Russian coalition in Syria unravels.

The original Russian coalition SAA, SNF, Hezbollah, Revolutionary guards, Iranian Army, Palestinian units, Iraqi Shia Militia and small tribal and local groups and elements of PYD (Kurds) fall apart due to three major reasons.

The first reason is withdrawal of most of Russian military aircraft from Syria, making effective close range air support to those fighting on the ground almost impossible. ISIL figured it out and often attacks after knowing that Russian air force is engaged somewhere else and unable to fight on two or more fronts at the same time as they could before.

The second is the ceasefire itself, negotiated between US and Russian only and arrogantly excluding any input from any members of Russian coalition.

The third is that the Russians withdrawal significantly diminished their role in the central command structure of entire Syrian war battlefield theater located near Damascus. By itself it was a devastating blow to the Syrian command that was for practical purposes run by the Russian generals, often teachers of Syrian top officers from Russian military academies, and was responsible for unprecedented massive assault of integrated Russian Air and Sea power and Syrian ground forces on terrorists positions and logistics in first months after Russian intervention.

Now Russians apparently handed over the command to Syrian generals and put 70% diminished Russian military power in a role of their contractor negotiating ever strike due to scarcity of resources available. This created conflict between other Russian allies such as Iran, Hezbollah and PYD that are unwilling to cede they entire local theater authority to Damascus, having to deal with their own sponsors and supporters.

That created even more chaos than it was before. In uncoordinated manner IRG units either initiate their military operations or are being ambushed by terrorists in Aleppo province while are unable to obtain Russian air support in time which often results in numerous unnecessary casualties and that includes recent deaths of several generals of IRG. The same is happening to botches advances of SAA to Raqqa where uncoordinated with Russian moves ended up with hundred of casualties and bitterness toward Russians who were unable to support them when ISIL counterattacked.

More and more lack of Russian air power capability deployed in Syria and a detrimental change in the command structure creates political conflicts within the coalition since Russians are seen as picking and choosing what request they honor causing conflicts among commanders on the ground who are used to counting on Russian air support, and are therefore ill prepared to fight without it and hence significantly increased loss of lives, territory and military hardware in last two months.

As a result, Russian coalition is losing initiative and ground in south Aleppo areas and other areas as well and as I predicted, the situation turns slowly into a quagmire with frontlines moving back and forth with no progress being made while casualties even Russian advisers mount.

Below there are some excerpts from a post on a Russian website that describes the issues that only make military situation more complicated and more dire with no end or peace in sight, exactly what US neocons have planed.

The big question is why? Why Putin fell for this phony ceasefire that allowed for rearming the terrorists? Why Putin and his brilliant strategy of Syrian intervention faltered? Unknown, but as I wrote before hard geopolitical reality of Russia confronting US imperial power is in the center of the problem not a fate of suffering Syrian people.

http://www.vz.ru/world/2016/6/30/819006.html

A Post entitled: Battles for Aleppo drew disagreements between Russia and its allies; Written by Eugene Krutikov;

After the attack by Syrian troops was bogged down in Raqqa area the fighting moved to other parts of the country. Specifically to North and South Aleppo, where the fighting does not stop even for a minute. And it is there where we may see suddenly a clearly evident conflict between goals and actions of the Syrian government army and its allies, primarily Russia and Iran.

Gloves off. Even Reuters calls ANF terrorist “rebels” potentially subjects to ceasefire.

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2016/07/reuters-colludes-with-terrorists-by-disguising-them-as-rebels.html

 

SF Update

 

Aleppo fighting continues;

 

Palmyra, Russian Mi-25 down

 

Warning Shocking 18+; Massacre in Aleppo by Terrorists

 

 

US weapons in terrorists’ hands;

 

Su22 training jet shut down by Rebels;

Pilot executed;

 

Russian tank T90 attacked with three TOW missiles and survived but captured by ISIL near Raqqa province.

 

Assad set back. ANF took back Kinsibb, Latakia;

 

SAA took back Jebal-Al Acrad, Latakia province.

 

Palmyra area fighting

 

YPG Manjib siege continues;

 

TURKEY: PKK and the war against Erdogan.

 

LIBYA: Fighting against ISIL in Syrte Libya:

 

IRAQ: Falluja 18+

 

 

Advertisements

3 thoughts on “A Fissure within Russian Coalition Confirmed.

  1. I was wondering what the hell Putin was up to leaving SAA, Hezbollah and Iraqi/Iranian militia in the lurch without effective air support. With Russian air power and advanced weapons the Syrian coalition should have been able to put a significant dent into Daesh and the TOW ATGM wielding Wahhabis favored by the west. But that didn’t happen. The SAA have made gains in Aleppo the last few days. but will they be able to keep their captured territory? I hope Putin keeps his word and gets his act together. There is a lot more than Syria riding on his integrity but that ‘s incidental. He made a commitment to Syria and he should honor that.

    Like

    1. This is a good question. I of course have no way of knowing what Putin actually thinks but I could speculate that there must be a political faction in Russian government, possibly connected to Medvedev and Russian oligarchs, that wants to improve economic and financial relations with the West since western sanctions hurt they financial interests while ironically help domestic industries. On the other hand there is another faction, national security faction that wants to respond to western escalation of war confrontation rhetoric as well as enhanced military capabilities and bases deployed at Russian borders and would see any type of political surrender as entering a dangerous path of western military intimidation they will never accept. So you see Syrian war plays only marginal role, a bargaining chip of Russia and US in a much wider geopolitical conflict that reignited anew since 2011. What’s worry me that again and again ordinary people of Syria paying price in this global geopolitical death match.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. That’s a very reasonable explanation. None of us know exactly what is going on behind the scenes and who is thinking what and the best we can do is make educated guesses based on credible information.

        Those who see Putin (or anybody else for that matter) as a saviour of Syria or the world is attributing God-like powers to a human and are bound to be disappointed. My hope was (and still is) that Russia can bring some balance to world geopolitics that is utterly dominated by America and its allies and henchmen. My hope for Syria was that the war stops and the country remains intact as one nation state and the people of Syria decide what comes next.

        Putin did not get involved to help Syrians per se, it is in Russia’s interests if Syria remains independent of American manipulation, but I was cautiously hoping Russia could help bring a quick end to the war so the next stage can begin. This is not looking likely and the longer the war drags on the chances of Syria remaining intact decrease. It is well known that the American side wants Syria Balkanized and divided along sectarian lines (they want this with Iraq also) like they did in Yugoslavia in the late 1990s. This strategy creates small, weak states that are easily controlled and kept in line with US interests. Iran insists that Balkanizing Syria is not acceptable, Russia has been awfully quiet about that and its reluctance to better support its supposed military allies leaves a lot of questions. Will Russia be happy if Syria is split up as long they can keep their air and naval bases in ‘Aliwitistan’? I don’t know, but going back to pre-war Syria and starting over seems very unlikely.

        I agree 100% that the price for these countries fighting their proxy wars in Syria is being paid by Syrians and none of the foreign players, who all say they are representing the Syrian people, asks “what do Syrians want?” I think the answer to that is “STOP the war!” and this is exactly what none of the foreign powers wants until their side wins a decisive military victory.

        Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s