As I am making my weekly, bold assertions about what is going on in Syrian war, mostly through lenses of skepticism and realism stripping a veil off self-serving propaganda on all sides of the conflict, looking for fundamental interests of everybody involved, I wished that at least few of my seemingly highly speculative assertions wouldn’t pan out, that there were out there some sources or data I was unaware of that would suggest otherwise so I could admit that my contentions were too pessimistic. Unfortunately so far I can’t.
Al those quite pessimistic, even cynical one may say, headlines of my posts since so–called ceasefire was announced sadly seems justified:
CEASE-FIRE: A tool of War Politics. Posted on February 25, 2016
SECRET PROTOCOL? Why Did Russians Pause Bombing ISIL or Did They? Posted on February 28, 2016
CEASEFIRE: Talk of Peace, Preparation for Invasion. Posted on March 3, 2016
Why this Phony Ceasefire Between US Allies and Russian Allies? Divide and Conquer on Both Sides. Posted on March 7, 2016
A GREAT PAUSE: What does Putin want Assad to do? Posted on March 10, 2016
AFTER SOME PAUSE: War Continues with No Peace in Sight. Posted on March 14, 2016
Now, on April 10, 2016 ceasefire is officially dead as intensity of fighting returned to pre-ceasefire levels. All the terrorists and US sponsored rebels, as I warned in February, returned refreshed after R&R in Turkey, rested, convalesced, injured fighters healed, fed, paid, with new-found vigor and reassurances by their sponsors with new weapons money and good word of support returned to frontlines ready to finally finish off the Evil Assad as they were paid for.
In meanwhile ISIL brand and terrorists involved, considered somewhat stale in the western propaganda menageries are secretly changing uniforms and joining “so-called US moderate beheaders under the same black flag of death with different Quran scribbles on it, so Kerry could brag that ISIL territory shrank 40% forgetting to mention that it shrank to benefit of ANF (Al-Qaeda) or other “rebels” not SAA, that gained only about 20% of territory since a years ago. And none of that thanks to US fake bombing campaign that does not last 18 months now. It is hard to argue with a notion that this “intermission” in fighting was purposefully designed for changing costumes between one and the other group of abhorrent terrorists, murderers and mercenaries of the USA and allies aimed solely to depose Assad one way or another, by this named group or another. And nothing else seems to have changed.
The so-called Geneva talks initially farcical vaudeville deteriorated to surrealistic nightmare where Kerry is “negotiating for peace” with US financed terrorist types so repugnant that would bring long hard prison sentence for anyone who would happen to be accidentally in the same room with them for a minute. While some negotiators are on the list of wanted terrorists by Swiss national security authorities and could not obtain a Swiss visa, US dared to extend to them diplomatic protections.
In a Ionesco style we have Al-Qaeda terrorists who vow to destroy America at the table as peace seeking Assad opposition while defending their own land against terrorists representatives of Kurdish YPG and other forces on the ground are banned from proceedings, branded as terrorists.
Except for some pro Assad “rebels” Syrian citizen and Assad regime, there is no direct negotiation between actual players on the ground that are entrenched opposite each other in Syria. So who is negotiating with who? and about what?
Kerry with his terrorist supporters (Saudis, Turks) and Lavrov with his supporters (Assad, YPG Kurds and some rebels), both happily load the media with impossible constructs of wishful thinking and utter nonsense, pretending that progress is being made.
In my last two post I asked the question. Is that what Putin intended to achieve by agreeing to the charade of a ceasefire, and by that fact breaking the military momentum of SAA in Latakia, Aleppo, Damascus all battle fields officially not a part of ceasefire agreement. Was it a Russian goal to allow for recent strong advances of replenished ANF which as a result caused significant push back of the SAA frontlines in the Tel-Eis strong point areas already liberated in late January and serious setbacks elsewhere while 60% of Russian Air force have been withdrawn. Except for Palmyra (Tadmor) that was not really defended by ISIL but rather cultural site held hostage, everywhere else on frontlines SAA positions somewhat deteriorated during last two months. I am not saying that Assad has been weakened since he has not, being for last six months loaded with new Russian weapons and training of another 100k of military units various formations. What I am saying is that the war is not an inch closer to the end and de-facto partition of Syrian state and Syrian people’s suffering is bound to continue.
So what all those last six months of Russian intervention was for? As I discussed numerous times on this blog numerous objectives Russians may have had for intervening, one reason seems to permeate all of this is namely prevention of Turkish/NATO invasion of Syria and ignition a path to WWIII.
If true the ceasefire agreement and Russian withdrawal of Air-force was nothing but Russian capitulation when confronted with blackmail, a bluff of US/NATO –Russia/Assad confrontation, acquiesced under conditions of abandonment of Turkish invasion plans and in fact accepting semi-permanent, at least administrative, partition of Syria.
One way or another it seems to be that the Russian concession was made not in Syrian context but in the geopolitical realm,and hence brought to us this, on a surface, a phony ceasefire.
As I posited many times all those good will, peace-loving people who were so exited about Russian involvement for peace, are mistaken. Russians are intervening in Syria mostly to defend their own geopolitical and national interest however they see it and that’s all.
Having two military bases and third in making was a good enough reason to strike deal with the US regardless of dashed hope of prompt peace Syrians may have had.
Now even Assad defied Russians who still insist on transitional or unity government until “ true democratic elections” are to be held late in 2017, and just in three days, on April 13, 2016 organizes elections with participation of the opposition that will include 85% of Syrian population still in Syria, asking for another mandate almost two years after election of 2014 and vows to implement political reforms including confirmation of official recognition of the opposition parties, reign in on oligarchs and economic mafias and sectarian cronyism including his Alawite clan and promising jobs in rebuilding of devastated county with preliminary assured Chinese and Russian loans of $100 Billions or more over next ten years. All of that against “Lavrov-Kerry” general plan for peace in Syria”.
So what is this all about? Is this a semi-permanent partition of Syria into fiefdoms, statelets of Assad, Turkmen and Sunnistan of Saudi founded terrorists under protectorate of their sponsors?
Is this what Russian wanted accomplish by involving themselves?
I guess that would be it no matter their intentions and the likely future of Syrian people suffering, except for band-aid of humanitarian assistance, would sure continue since US imperial plans of deposing Assad did not change at all.
It is sad but clear that Russian bought or acquiesced to western lies that Syrians are politically divided to the level that cannot be reconciled peacefully within a democratic political system.
But these are just baseless lies. In fact the war of western aggression, all of Syrians realized over five years of war, united them more than they ever been and all of Syrian citizen except for those merchants of war or those who benefited by stealing Syrian national treasure, understand that nobody in the world stands up for them as a nation and for united Syria as a state under secular Arab nationalism ideology and identity, as much as Assad himself surviving numerous assassination attempts by CIA assets in his on regime.
All of that make situation unstable and unfortunately spells stagnation, freezing of the conflict in place in conditions that no side accepts, ready in any moment to re-ignite such as a case of Eastern Ukraine and recently flared up Nogorno-Karabakh conflict frozen already for 25 years now, ironically via a deal between Azeris and Armenians brokered by Russia.
Is this the future for Syria, a partitioned half state on a hair-trigger of all out war, crippling, collapsing economy and destroying last hope for the future for young generation with potential for even more massive economic migration.
I hope not.
Continue reading “Ceasefire Ceased to Exist as Ionescoesque Theater of Absurd Continues.”