It is nothing but a technical break happening in any war for logistical reason. Syrian and Russian air force temporarily reduced by 70% operational sorties and that included almost complete stop 90% in Idlib province comparing to average number of sorties last month and over 50% against ISIL and during at least first two days of ceasefire deadline last Friday complete suspension of air assaults.
Syrians and Russians almost completely suspended operations on all fronts including ANF and ISIL not a party to the ceasefire agreement. What could be the reason?
- New materiel supplies for Syrian military and Russian air force are being shipped to Syria, new crew rotations, and that includes Iranian air base in Homs. In other words Syrians, Russians and allied forces are performing personnel rotation and equipment replacement/repair, and that includes training of 50 thousands of new Syrian reservists with new advanced Russian weapons shipped from Russia, modernization and unification of command and control system, and night vision equipment, newest Russian tactical ballistic missiles, guided missiles, antitank and, anti Air to Air systems deployed on helicopters and fixed wing aircraft as well as newest Huragan and Smertch MRLS with range of 70 miles, large missiles, with autonomous guided antitank and cluster munitions supported by integrated operational drones, shot in one of those missiles to evaluate battle theatre minutes after assault, systems that are unmatched with any NATO weaponry of this type. All those system are fully able to defeat Turkish army or any NATO army and hence it looks like it is a preparation not for final assault against ISIL and ANF bare footed terrorists, but rather against Turkish and Saudis intervention in Syria. And that’s probably the reason why Russian paused the offensive towards Turkish border.
- US and coalition stopped bombing ISIL about 10 days ago, to allow new US military supplies to arrive.
- All out negotiation between Russians/SAA and Syrian rebels are all about surrender and amnesty for those who stop fighting Assad and dismantle or join SAA and that includes units that were affiliated with ISIL and ANF and hence were not part of the agreement, this process started three months ago and at least half and 38 deals Russian already made for surrender had been negotiated prior to this cease file.
- The remains of the terrorists groups directly controlled by Turkey moved within 5 mile corridor along Turkish border, re-supplied and dug in new reinforced positions defended directly by Turkish artillery from across the border. All while attacks on YPG north of Aleppo continue, no ceasefire there, tolerated by Russians and US.
- ANF and ISIL evacuated their wounded to Turkey under the guise of humanitarian transports and received re-supplies and reinforcement of several thousands fighters from Saudis via Turkey while Russian air force was almost completely grounded for first three days after official deadline.
- US pretends that this is permanent ceasefire they support, while claiming that they are ready continue peace talks accusing Syria, not Russians, of violating non existing ceasefire agreement with ANF, ISIL or bombing civilians and threatening with partition of Syria, statement directly conflicted with already signed Geneva agreement calling for Syrian united. No long-term peace effort on American part visible.
- Russians pretend that this is a path to peace while they are preparing to confront Turkish invasion force and on a side negotiating to split rebels and induce their surrender or switching sides and continue fight against ISIL/ANF with converted rebels.
One way or another this is not a path to peace since no major problems, causes of the western aggression on Syria are even discussed at this point. The Syrian political opposition is nonexistent or already infiltrated by Russians and Syrians and will not call for Assad removal but just for new elections, which Assad surely will win.
Such a solution is unacceptable by Washington and Ankara which would be biggest looser of this status-quo, gaining highly trained and well equipped enemy of YPG impossible to defeat short of risky massive invasion, which may potentially results in disintegration of Turkey itself for which NATO will not give OK. At this point US neocons have no choice but limited invasion to prop up ISIL/ANF convert them to “moderates” and temporary declare partition of Syria before US advisors train and equip the beheaders for final push to dislodge Assad from Damascus sometimes within 12 months. Another psychotic delusion of W.H. which even pentagon opposes for variety of reasons I wrote about on this blog.
Preparations are massive and even include buildup Russian forces in Armenian air bases some located few miles from far eastern Turkish border, high level alert of Russian Black sea fleet and southern military district in Russia including electronic warfare installations in Crimea, mine sweeping by Russian warships in Mediterranean and new supplies of long-range cruise missiles to those ships and new S300 for Syria and more S400 and new AWACS aircraft and fighter jets for Russians in Syria while terrorists have no air force and no navy. Make up you own mind what it means.
These are surely strange days of brewing something big.
US want to divide Syria, as ISIL commanders claim.
So-called moderate rebels benefit from amnesty and go home.
Syrian opposition already broke the ceasefire:
THE SOME SYRIAN OPPOSITION (FUNDED BY TURKEY AND SAUDIS) HAS CANCELED THE TRUCE IN SYRIA
Representatives of the Syrian opposition claimed that began February 27 ceasefire in Syria is almost canceled because of the actions of the government army.
Chairman of Higher Committee for negotiations with the opposition forces Asaad al-Zoubi said that the militants could use other methods to secure their people if a truce is not respected.
“I believe that the international community has suffered a complete failure in their attempts and experiments, however, it is time to take real effective action in relation to the regime”, – he said.
And this is what Reuters writes:
Israel said on Tuesday Syrian forces had been dropping chlorine barrels on civilians over the past few days. Israel comes back from oblivion to lie.
SF: latest developments:
Re-Liberation of Tel Abiad by YPG:
Syrian TV 2
Syrian TV 2: Election preparation in liberated areas.
Press under fire including Canadian radio journalist.
Terrorists killed near Israeli border 18+
Damage to Kurdish cities by Turkish army shelling across the border:
Turkmen rebels supported by Turkey in Idlib province.
Kornet GM against terrorists suicide truck;
ISIL captured terrorists:
if US give to ISIL AA stringer missiles here is the Russian response to it:
SAA in church.
Syrian air force continue bombings in El-Rastan.
Latakia Russian guide missiles in action.
Warning 18+ IRAQ: suicide bomb killed dozens of Iraqi Shia militia and civilians:
Libya: SUICIDE TRUCK;
This is not Syria, this is Turkey, destroyed city by Turkish army fighting PKK. A hidden war from western eyes.
Russian intervention in Syria for American presidential dummies: