MONTH SIX: What did Russians Accomplish? Part 2.

After over six months of Russian direct military intervention President of Russian Federation V. Putin ordered Russian troops to partially withdraw from Syria. It was received as a surprise in the Western media especially that Russian involvement dramatically changed momentum of this war to Syrian advantage.

Below I continue part 2 of a brief examination of Russian accomplishments or failures, reasons for withdraw and whether or not it was premature. I will also address what are political ramification of this move are in context of the Syrian war and peace efforts as well as Russia strategic geopolitical interests in the region.

As a counter point for this discussion I used a comprehensive but a bit one-sided post published on a website Novorossia Today http://novorossia.today/z-tarcza-czy-na-tarczy/

[Google Translated and edited]

Novorossia Today continues:

Observing the course of combat operations of the Russian military in Syria, it is hard not to notice that policymakers in Moscow used military engagement of Russia in Syria, as a kind of training ground where the latest weapons systems could be tested in combat. Undoubtedly demonstration of the world combat capabilities of the Russian fleet turned out to be surprising [to the west]. Relatively small [navy] corvettes, frigates and cruise missile launching surface ships, operating out of the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea launched latest [Hypersonic and Subsonic] cruise missiles called “Kalibr” NK successfully striking targets in Syria at distances nearly 2000 km with surgical precision. Similarly [western] specialists were surprised by possibility of launching missiles from torpedo tubes on [non-nuclear; diesel-electric] submarine 636 [platform] named “Rostov” repeatedly varying underwater Mediterranean launching positions of missiles destroying [many] command posts of the Islamic State.

However, priority of recognition [in showcasing the Russian war technology] should be given to invisible technology i.e. Russian GLONASS geo-positioning satellite navigation system [encrypted military grade], supporting Russia missiles’ guidance system used by TS-24 “Gefest” to turning cheap dumb bombs into guided precision ammunition with a precision of about 15 ft for 1/100th of the cost of US guided munitions. This device is standard equipment installed on new aircraft SU-34 as well as on upgraded 1970s designs of cheap SU-24M and SU-25SM warplanes. Thus the Russians radically reduced the cost of the military operation in Syria, while maintaining extremely high precision of bombing hits. The usage by the RF pilots of the Russian precise munitions, in a form of guided missile Kh-29 or laser-guided bombs KAB-500L and TS-24 made it possible to avoid mistakes during the bombings and hence unnecessary victims, especially among civilians.

As I mentioned on this blog before, conflict in Syria is undoubtedly a part of growing global geopolitical conflict between East and West, a part of no-so-cold war 2.0. And it is hard not to conclude that unleashing by Putin all the recent or even most recent war technology against sometimes even shoeless ISIL/ANF terrorists in Toyotas seems huge overkill and however helpful in Syrian war, addressed not the conflict at hand but geopolitical confrontation between NATO and Russia.

We seem to see a confirmation of that fact by recent US directives to overhaul of NATO military technologies deployed in Europe in view of Russian advanced military technology successfully demonstrated in Syrian conflict and that included killing of US Abrams M1A1 and A2 tanks by Russian guided AT missiles and combat effective electronic shield that protected Russian T90 and modernized T72 tanks from American TOW missiles numerous times demonstrated in the Syrian war.

The Russians proved so far that they are easily capable of defeating against NATO standard military equipment from guns to tanks to missiles, to aircraft, and brought to open what western military experts knew for a decade now that NATO is incapable to defeat Russians in Europe, and hence the rush of modernization making US/EU MIC happy.

Moreover, Russians proved that they can successfully support Syrian war effort with up to 50 times smaller expenses combined their equipment simplicity and interchangeability of training and gear and clearly demonstrated their long-term sustainability of high combat capabilities even when cut off or obstructed from outside supplies via means of embargo or sanctions.

While American generals shed they military uniforms for executive suits and together with SV narcissist megalomaniacs are massively defrauding US treasury by developing or pretending to develop Star Trek-like fancy and utterly combat useless military systems for trillions of US taxpayer money, Russian generals believe that any military equipment that cannot be fixed with one uninjured hand with a hammer or by pulling some part from another damaged device to work with another type of system, is worthless in real combat situation and hence must not be invested in. And Putin wholeheartedly agreed and supported that, by canceling many far off projects over last 10 years while US generals were peddling illusions for profit and F-35 or easily sinkable aircraft carriers or mind-boggling 15 billion nuclear submarines at 20 times cost of Russian boats meeting or exceeding offensive and defensive capabilities of those of US. are good example of astronomical fraud perpetrated on American citizen under cover of cold war and now farcical war on Putin terror.

Novorossia Today continues:

In contrast to Americans in Afghanistan or the Saudis in Yemen, Russians [largely] avoided the targeting blunders and international humanitarian law violations in Syria and never once bombed the hospital, weddings or school [although they have been accused of doing so numerous times without any evidences, as I pointed out on this blog]. The commander of the Air-Space Forces of Russian Federation, General Viktor Bondariew thanked the returning pilots for precision bombing of terrorists’s sites [mostly] that avoided mistakes and confusion, and for taking special care during performance of combat operations [to minimize] suffering of [Syrian] civilians. It is worth to remember the first large-scale application of Russians robotic armored vehicles, into real combat zone guided by UAS/satellite that was instrumental in overcoming fortified mountain position of terrorists from ANF in Latakia and Idlib provinces.

What is interesting that the only source so far that reports on alleged Russian bombings of civilian sites come from one sources namely SOHR run by a single person from his apartment in England. Surprisingly, this is a sole source for US and EU MSM including Reuters and AP, a shocking fact since none of claims were ever independently confirmed on the ground by IRC or other international, UN organizations but still repeated by HRC and even AI but not in Syria but in Turkey 1000 km from events.

Continue reading “MONTH SIX: What did Russians Accomplish? Part 2.”

MONTH SIX: What did Russians Accomplish? Part 1.

After over six months of Russian direct military intervention in Syrian War President of Russian Federation V. Putin ordered Russian troops to partially withdraw from Syria.

It was received as a surprise in the Western media especially that Russian involvement dramatically changed momentum of this war to Syrian advantage and media opened up to vast speculation about why Russia decided to limits her involvement while regained military momentum on the battlefield against enemies. Is it prohibitive cost of the operation, unreported losses or western or internal political pressure on Putin? They wondered.

Below I will examine Russian accomplishments, likely reasons for withdrawal and whether or not it was premature. I will also examine what are political ramification of this move in context of the Syrian war and peace efforts as well as in context Russian strategic geopolitical interests in the region and impact on Assad regime and people of Syria.

As a counter point for this discussion I used a comprehensive but a bit one-sided post summarizing last six months of Russian intervention published on a website Novorossia Today http://novorossia.today/z-tarcza-czy-na-tarczy/

What did Russians accomplish according to Novorossia Today website? [Google Translated ] Part 1.

Firstly they saved his ally, Syrian President Bashar Assad. The Russians were entering into action when the opposition sponsored from outside and the terrorists armed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and the United States brought the government forces of President Assad to the brink of collapse. In summer 2015 the government army retreated under the pressure from ANF and ISIL fighters on every front and Syria faced the prospect of “failed state” on the model of Libya. Western commentators were predicting imminent death in disgrace Bashar Assad a fate similar to the Colonel Muammar Gaddafi. Syrian oil reserves were in the hands of the Islamic State and through areas controlled by ANF (Syrian Al-Qaeda) convoys of tankers move stolen crude oil to Turkish ports. The Turkish establishment drew from this theft enormous profits by exporting robbed Syrian crude oil to refineries of major corporations including those in the EU. In return, the Turks supplied terrorists with advanced weapons including artillery and antitank missiles. The Turkish air force often bombed positions of the Syrian army and were shooting down Syrian aircraft trying to operate near the borders with Turkey.

 

However the above is only partially true. The fact is that worse crisis for Assad regime was in late 2013 and 2014 when series of assassination attempt have been made against President Bashar al-Assad by traitors, CIA agents in midst of his own regime, killing hundreds of high ranked military, government officials and Baa’th party politicians, while key losses of military logistics system and larger military death toll put Assad regime on the brink of NATO invasion under later disproved accusation of genocide, and usage of chemical weapons again population.

After Russians, under US pressure acquiesced to orderly Assad departure in 2012 or 2013, unsure whether or not he would, be able to go on, under assault from well armed ANF and later FSA partly metastasized into ISIL with UAE, Saudis supports, Assad asked Syrian people for a mandate to continue the war and called for elections. Syrian people in more or less fair wartime elections unequivocally gave him this mandate in June 2014.

Having support from the people Assad immediately began heavy lobbying in Russia and Iran for direct military assistance on large-scale which he obtained from Hezbollah the same year and hence first important battlefield victories began in the areas along Damascus-Beirut road and later in more areas around Lebanon border. That was what opened Syrian trade routes and secured Damascus-Latakia road critical due to logistics and military movements.

While Russia effectively blocked UNSC resolutions that would effectively authorize NATO invasion of Syria and later blocked US unilateral attack on Syria by pushing Assad to give up his old and militarily useless chemical weapons, Putin refused to assist Syrian military directly with supplies of new weapons or equipment until early 2015 when Assad regime had already been marginally stabilized via support from Iran and according to advice by IRG withdrew from certain positions to consolidate the frontlines and gave up efforts to hold on to some areas with lass strategic value, all interpreted by the west as a sign of weakness instead of strength.

However, as a surprise to the west Assad having renewed mandate to continue the war to defend his nation, it did not result with more terror against Syrians who betrayed him but did the opposite. He commenced a reconciliation process including general amnesty and series local ceasefire agreements with Syrian opposition including FSA and tribal leaders who supported ANF, FSA and later ISIL, mainly for benefited of local civilian population who were allowed to cross frontlines for economic reason and bring supplies and medical help in order to avoid suffering and starvation.

Continue reading “MONTH SIX: What did Russians Accomplish? Part 1.”

AFTER SOME PAUSE: War Continues with No Peace in Sight.

As I predicted few weeks ago this “ceasefire” is being used by all sides to regroup. Reload with weapons and in the case of terrorists change some cloths and turning themselves into “moderates” overnights.

And we would have seen complete collapse of ISIL already,  although it deteriorates as I write, if not a pride of their Saudis and Turkish sponsors who are appalled by lack of perseverance, dedication and “faith” of those anointed by God underpaid, pious believers in Allah, hungry and weaponless soldiers of God, dying in some stinky, cold and wet trenches lectured by godless puppets in skirts drenched in filthy opulence, telling half-dead what to do.

That doesn’t go well among the terrorist ranks and hence majority of European Jihadists already left Iraq/Syria back to comfort of their homes and smell of morning latte. I think that this utter defeat of the Saudi nurtured Salafists would be important one in global scale factors that, among many other sociopolitical factors is playing a role in ultimate demise of Saudis as Islamic authority and as an abomination of a state having no place in XXI century, once truth about Saudi betrayal of God’s cause and military and political impotence, spreads all over the Muslim world.

A note to reader: Unless events warrant otherwise, since there is apparent slowdown in military and political actions regarding Syrian conflict, the Syrian War Update blog will be updated on weekly basis on Mondays.

Continue reading “AFTER SOME PAUSE: War Continues with No Peace in Sight.”

A GREAT PAUSE: What does Putin want Assad to do?

In a simple word Putin wants Assad play along and restore the governmental power, political, judicial and economic system on liberated territories in order to enable conditions for growth of Syrian’s jobs and other opportunities, to pretend things are coming back to normal to build support of the Assad regime from ground up, in preparation to the upcoming inevitable “free” elections in which Assad Baa’th party will face “official “ opposition which in fact would be divided into Assad allies leaning and sponsored parties and US/allies leaning and sponsored parties.

And That’s what Russia and Iran is working hard right now on with massive humanitarian assistance and other programs including weapons and military engineering training offered to new recruits. It is done under guise of otherwise phony ceasefire (since Russians and US and proxies are not part of a ceasefire) that is used to ally Syrian tribal chiefs as well as other ethnic groups such a Turkmen, Shias, Yezidis, Sunni Arabs and Kurds into political formations that would create illusion of diversity and plurality of political programs but in fact would represent political monoliths of Russian and Western supported political blocks.

One may ask: Why Assad and Putin decided to go for an US imposed “democratic process” instead of invoking Syrian sovereignty and dismiss all the rebels as criminals, which according to international law they are? One of the answers would be that Assad is sure to win. The other would be to stifle Turkish/Saudi imminent invasion.

Assad silent offensive of eradication of the foreign fighters from battlefields, general amnesty, national reconciliation and insisting of rule of law as a basis for addressing grievances and political conflicts under umbrella of Syrian Arab secularism and nationalism as well as unassailable Syrian territorial integrity started over two years ago and turned out to be huge success, a number one reason that Assad is still there.

Russians and allies are kin on repeating the political charades that in the west are called elections and score victory against western imperialism using their own weapons namely propaganda of a democratic process. While US did not give up on partition of Syria and is trying to use “political process” to weaken Assad and strengthen their abhorrent proxy terrorists to continue to undermine Syrian state.

Will they succeed? Unknown. But so far there is no shred of evidence that US reconciled itself to loosing “Arab Spring revolution” in Syria and what’s more important, Washington refused to acknowledge that American influence over Middle East is dwindling.

Continue reading “A GREAT PAUSE: What does Putin want Assad to do?”

Why this Phony Ceasefire Between US Allies and Russian Allies? Divide and Conquer on Both Sides.

After a close look at the ceasefire one have to come up with an objective conclusion that this ceasefire aims toward prolonging the war rather then to end it. Weapons are flowing in, ISIL and ANF fighters are deserting and move under umbrella of “ phony moderates” who vowed to continue fighting in few weeks while their ranks are swollen with former beheaders. The other moderates in contrast, practically took side of Russian coalition and are being integrated in the SAA command and control or are subject of amnesty and/or directly joining pro-Assad military units.

Both sides used last 10 days for rapidly arming themselves from all the sources in Russia and the West.

Many may disagree, saying that it could be a step forward toward negotiated peace in Syria and later in Iraq. Granted, that one thing, namely opening access for humanitarian assistance for all those civilians who are true victims of the western aggression via proxy terrorists as well as victims of liberating efforts of Syrian army and her allies, is making the ceasefire worth having. And I am not denying that.

However, my own experience of closely observing Ukrainian war and a ceasefire attained there over one year ago now did not produced any, I say, any political breakthrough, and what’s worse situation deteriorated economically and politically on both sides of the conflict and unnecessarily instigated political instability, endangering the successes of those who stand on the side of law and against western supported fascist gangs and terrorists, including those jihadis units operating in fascist Ukraine. Nor Ukrainian ceasefire and Minsk II agreement helped to improve a geopolitical climate between Russia and the West, which continues the unfounded sanctions for second year and refused to push for federalization of Ukraine, the only solution for peace. One has to ask a question if Syrian agreement awaits the same fate.

The another purpose of this ceasefire have to be considered i.e. a pause and preparation for next stage, namely an delusional and fatal invasion of Turkish and Saudis armies and ultimately division of Syria into small fiefdoms under imperial auspices of the US, as I already mentioned in my previous post.

In my opinion there must be a thaw in hostile bilateral US-Russian relation in order to have some foundations for hope of ending those US imperial wars instigated by dying empire. But it is unlikely since the entire crisis is not about Syria but to defeat Russia in global geopolitical realm. When Washington neocons see problem in Moscow they will not find solution in Damascus.

Otherwise the war will continue one way or another, open or simmering under the surface until US imperial power is diminished or removed in the MENA countries and regional geopolitics reconfigured. And all the parties know that well including Saudis and Turkey.

ANF provocation to entice Turkey invasion

ANF shells Turkish army position in Turkey to provoke retaliation against Kurds;

https://www.rt.com/news/334739-syria-militants-shell-turkey/

https://www.rt.com/news/334483-turkey-nusra-ypg-exclusive/

 

Continue reading “Why this Phony Ceasefire Between US Allies and Russian Allies? Divide and Conquer on Both Sides.”

CEASEFIRE: Talk of Peace, Preparation for Invasion.

It is nothing but a technical break happening in any war for logistical reason. Syrian and Russian air force temporarily reduced by 70% operational sorties and that included almost complete stop 90% in Idlib province comparing to average number of sorties last month and over 50% against ISIL and during at least first two days of ceasefire deadline last Friday complete suspension of air assaults.

Syrians and Russians almost completely suspended operations on all fronts including ANF and ISIL not a party to the ceasefire agreement. What could be the reason?

  1. New materiel supplies for Syrian military and Russian air force are being shipped to Syria, new crew rotations, and that includes Iranian air base in Homs. In other words Syrians, Russians and allied forces are performing personnel rotation and equipment replacement/repair, and that includes training of 50 thousands of new Syrian reservists with new advanced Russian weapons shipped from Russia, modernization and unification of command and control system, and night vision equipment, newest Russian tactical ballistic missiles,  guided missiles, antitank and, anti Air to Air systems deployed on helicopters and fixed wing aircraft as well as newest Huragan and Smertch MRLS with range of 70 miles, large missiles, with autonomous guided antitank and cluster munitions supported by integrated operational drones, shot in one of those missiles to evaluate battle theatre minutes after assault, systems that are unmatched with any NATO weaponry of this type. All those system are fully able to defeat Turkish army or any NATO army and hence it looks like it is a preparation not for final assault   against ISIL and ANF bare footed terrorists, but rather against Turkish and Saudis intervention in Syria. And that’s probably the reason why Russian paused the offensive towards Turkish border.
  2. US and coalition stopped bombing ISIL about 10 days ago, to allow new US military supplies to arrive.
  3. All out negotiation between Russians/SAA and Syrian rebels are all about surrender and amnesty for those who stop fighting Assad and dismantle or join SAA and that includes units that were affiliated with ISIL and ANF and hence were not part of the agreement, this process started three months ago and at least half and 38 deals Russian already made for surrender had been negotiated prior to this cease file.
  4. The remains of the terrorists groups directly controlled by Turkey moved within 5 mile corridor along Turkish border, re-supplied and dug in new reinforced positions defended directly by Turkish artillery from across the border. All while attacks on YPG north of Aleppo continue, no ceasefire there, tolerated by Russians and US.
  5. ANF and ISIL evacuated their wounded to Turkey under the guise of humanitarian transports and received re-supplies and reinforcement of several thousands fighters from Saudis via Turkey while Russian air force was almost completely grounded for first three days after official deadline.
  6. US pretends that this is permanent ceasefire they support, while claiming that they are ready continue peace talks accusing Syria, not Russians, of violating non existing ceasefire agreement with ANF, ISIL or bombing civilians and threatening with partition of Syria, statement directly conflicted with already signed Geneva agreement calling for Syrian united. No long-term peace effort on American part visible.
  7. Russians pretend that this is a path to peace while they are preparing to confront Turkish invasion force and on a side negotiating to split rebels and induce their surrender or switching sides and continue fight against ISIL/ANF with converted rebels.

 

One way or another this is not a path to peace since no major problems, causes of the western aggression on Syria are even discussed at this point. The Syrian political opposition is nonexistent or already infiltrated by Russians and Syrians and will not call for Assad removal but just for new elections, which Assad surely will win.

Such a solution is unacceptable by Washington and Ankara which would be biggest looser of this status-quo, gaining highly trained and well equipped enemy of YPG impossible to defeat short of risky massive invasion, which may potentially results in disintegration of Turkey itself for which NATO will not give OK. At this point US neocons have no choice but limited invasion to prop up ISIL/ANF convert them to “moderates” and temporary declare partition of Syria before US advisors train and equip the beheaders for final push to dislodge Assad from Damascus sometimes within 12 months. Another psychotic delusion of W.H. which even pentagon opposes for variety of reasons I wrote about on this blog.

Preparations are massive and even include buildup Russian forces in Armenian air bases some located few miles from far eastern Turkish border, high level alert of Russian Black sea fleet and southern military district in Russia including electronic warfare installations in Crimea, mine sweeping by Russian warships in Mediterranean and new supplies of long-range cruise missiles to those ships and new S300 for Syria and more S400 and new AWACS aircraft and fighter jets for Russians in Syria while terrorists have no air force and no navy. Make up you own mind what it means.

These are surely strange days of brewing something big.

Continue reading “CEASEFIRE: Talk of Peace, Preparation for Invasion.”