More I read about this so-called ceasefire agreement it make less sense to me. Or there is at work a significant hidden agenda, not revealed so far, that determines precise motives and aim of both Russia and the US, for this particular political maneuver called Syrian truce. So let’s recapitulate the situation as of second day of this problematic move.
- As a map below indicates there are only five small areas where SAA faces potentially so-called moderates from FSA. The 90% of frontlines Russian coalition is facing an enemy classified as ISIL, ANF terrorists and hence excluded from the agreement.
- 90% of frontlines are not under the agreement so why Russian Air Force stopped bombing positions of terrorists not covered by the ceasefire?
- Why ceasefire did not cover Turkey that for about 10 days now openly engaged in direct military, operational artillery support for ISIL against Kurds, as well as allowing of ISIL terrorists to pass un hindered Turkish territory to attack Kurds directly from Turkish side. Why Russians stop flying while SAA and Kurds are under direct Turkish attack and why they announced this stoppage in operations? Hence allowing ISIL to move fighters and weapon supplies to the frontlines even if there is not truce between Russia and ISIL. Irreconcilable inconsistencies, and violations of all the Russian military doctrines and tactics, based on enemy guessing what military moves will come, and for what strategic interest in Syria such moves are warranted?
- Was the agreement all about Russians stopping bombing of all terrorists including ISIL, ANF friends of Washington D.C. and all the others non-existent moderate factions were just a cover up for propaganda purposes, as many of independent media was warning all along?
- The agreement implies complete lack of enforceability, prohibiting retaliation against those who signed up to the ceasefire but allowing only to return fire in self-defense if attacked by the side NOT A PARTY TO THE AGREEMENT. What’s that? Nonsense, if not straight betrayal. Read for yourself, I could not believe such proclamations from both sides. This is nothing but de-facto ceasefire with ISIL and ANF and first day proves it.
- What purpose this agreement serves when most of the “moderates” already declared that they need just two weeks of truce to re-supply from Turkey and regroup to continue to fight?
- What sense does this ceasefire agreement make except for potentially allowing for easier so-called “humanitarian” assistance which was being delivered before anyway when terrorists allowed for it. Is this nothing but a humanitarian agreement with terrorists to re-supply them, with food and medicine, they are short of money to purchase, so they can continue to fight another day?
- How this could be a prelude to overall peace talks when there is no agreement about who are the representatives of the Syrian opposition that Assad supposedly is going to talk with, that would remotely lead to any political solution no side really wants at this point, except for Kerry-Lavrov team. How one can explain the fact that 90% of Russian humanitarian support in Deir-Ez-Zor SAA enclave, for example, recently fell into ISIL hands but only 10% fell where it should, unfortunately, much of it destroyed due to a parachute malfunction while most previous drops were precise. What it this? An accident.
- Why there is no mention in the agreement and UN resolution of stopping delivery of weapons to the “moderates” and terrorists of ANF or ISIL for that matter, during the truce when in many cases they are fighting within a mile of each other military positions.
So what the hell is that, I am asking again? What it is what was actually agreed under the table in Munich and New York, that miraculously produced this phony face of unity between Russians and US neocons passing a UNSC resolution supporting this phantom truce while rejecting Syrian sovereignty at UNSC just few days ago. Was it a way of saving face of the US administration, a secret way for acknowledging defeat without too much scaring egos involved and US imperial hubris damaged. May be it was a hint recognizing that double sized Syrian army equipped and trained by Russians will not be defeated, a way of anti-climactic closure of another failed US imperial adventure in the ME.
Or that Russians just exhausted all the will and reasonable capabilities and after propping up of the Assad army are ready to leave under some quid pro quo with Americans, dropping western sanctions, and/or de-escalation of tensions in central Europe and/or cooling recent crazy arm race or selling out Donbass or else. You tell me but it is not about immediate military necessity that we have or don’t have, a truce we have or don’t have, an agreement we have or don’t have or a peace we have or don’t have.
Or it is a sand storm season and Russian air force is mostly grounded for 3 months or so, time to be used for refurbishing, repairing of the equipment, change personnel or whatever else they need.
Whatever it is we should be able to figure out soon by analyzing actual actions of all sides on the ground, and certainly not from listening to propaganda of peace both sides want to placate us in order to make us blind to the reality of continuing conflict.
I understand that majority of the Syrian people want peace and see this agreement as a chance to bring people closer to it but I must objectively say that this agreement solves no fundamental problem of US and NATO aggression against sovereign state of Syria and hence I still do not see any light in a tunnel many exhausted and devastated Syrians disparately want to see.