The name of the game is conflicting interests of all the players. No two countries have the same goals in precise terms while generally most support some vague, meaningless ideas open to broad interpretation and varying claims.
Before we try to understand what Saudi Arabia intentions are in Syrian peace negotiations’ context we have to understand from where they are coming from.
The so-called Saudi Royal Elite, described by last legitimate Caliph as a band of petty desert thieves and robbers of the camel caravans, killers of faithful Muslims on their way to Mecca for pilgrimage, was a direct product of a colonial conquest by failing British empire in late XIX century aimed to dislodge Turkish dominance and to break down the Ottoman empire.
When after disintegration of Ottoman Empire in 1918, this frail and politically insignificant group of criminals, on the payroll on British intelligence, was officially assigned by British imperial power a role of guardians of two top holly sites of Islam i.e. Mecca and Medina, there was an uproar in the Muslim world especially since those new guardians of faith were not even classified as Muslims, but a heretical sect, a cult limited in its influence only to Wahhabis, Arabian desert tribes.
Not until huge reservoirs of crude oil were discovered underneath Arabian desert in 1920-ties, this puny family of gangsters gained any importance on world political stage in a context of collapsing British imperial plans for MENA and even more when many years later an enormous wave of anti-colonial rebellions and people revolutions swept the world, destroyed old colonial order and transformed it into a cold war confrontation playground between two superpowers and their imperial hubris.
Unable to hold on to their colonies, British and other colonial powers frantically were trying to divide their colonies into some relatively weak, politically and religiously conflicted, easy to control regions and attempted to install Middle East puppet regimes in a form of fake Royalties, colonial collaborators or intelligence agents elevated to Royal class via edicts of British in ME and other European royalty elsewhere in Africa. An hence Saudi Arabia as well as other GCC fiefdoms were created, a colonial propaganda constructs, strictly controlled and financed by British and later by American imperial powers that became the only guarantors of their political and religious legitimacy as separate statelets.
In contrast to the GCC countries, this national “independence” charade did not work for long in other former British and French colonies of Iraq and Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, Egypt, etc., where Soviet trained political cadres of the populists, anti-colonial revolutionaries in late 1940-ties to 1960-ties overthrew those puppet regimes and/or former colonial powers and pushed for unifying ideology of Secular Arab Nationalism, with strong political and economic support of Soviets and that included Soviet push for establishment of socialistic Jewish state of Israel, as a misguided anti-colonial effort which conflicted with anti-colonial struggle of Palestinians and became an immediate cause of acute post-colonial conflict in the ME against original Soviet intentions.
Things got even worse when, after 1966, Israeli Yiddish leadership under pressure from US Jewish Diaspora, (perhaps) “turncoated” on the Soviets and was allowed to abandon Socialist, Zionist roots and turned into sectarian, capitalist regime it is today. In a way Israel first fell victim of “Jewish Spring-like” American subversion in order to get Israel under US imperial umbrella together with other sectarian desert thieves of GCC, a company where Jewish people did not belong.
All those developments further stabilized Saudi regime and made it indispensable in the US foreign political propaganda in a new global geopolitical context. Saudis became not only important strategic ally but a guardian of US economic power base depended on the ME oil when US oil production was programmatically declined.
Since that time on, Saudis obtained some kind of leverage in a cold war geopolitical context and hence began their own local or regional politics that culminated in 1967 -1973 when they stand with OPEC to punish the West for supporting of Israeli aggression and land grab of ethnically Arab lands of Golan Heights, trans-Jordan/West Bank and Sinai peninsula.
At that time petrodollar was born as a way of fusing Saudis into US financial system after they were allowed to nationalize their natural resources, and solidified US dependency on Saudis oil as a new arrangement out of ruins of Bretton-Woods, fixed FX and dollar-gold peg abandonment by US FED to foster illusion of economic growth via allowing and supporting disastrous financial engineering madness, bitter fruits of which we are enjoying now.
Since then the Saudis geopolitical leverage was varying depending on political winds but overall was decreasing. As Soviet Union was collapsing, the US embarked on dismantling MENA postcolonial order, undoing all the economic and political progress that was made mostly in countries run by Arab secularists but inadvertently saw seeds of reforms in the GCC countries when a some of population under a spell of western propaganda were seriously buying vague ideas of liberty and democracy meant as an entertainment, a joke to laugh at, causing political problems for despotic rulers of their fiefdoms.
But there was something else in Saudi Royal Family that changed as new generation took over, namely realization that US imperial powers are weakening in the last decade in terms of military strength as well as economic power and growth, as was proven in a form of deep recurring economic recessions and depressions 2000-2008 and beyond and utter defeat of Glorious Yankees in Iraq and Afghanistan by shoeless peasants, disaster not dissimilar to Soviet 1988 debacle.
Young Saudi Princes such as a current Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman, raised practically in the western commercial culture, are much more secularist and detached from religion and in the same time much less revering of US imperial powers, seeing them as in serious secular decline, while eastern powers mainly China emerging on a path to world dominance.
So now Saudis regime is practically run by thirty something guys that grew up watching “Thirty Something” sitcom while King Salman is incapacitated with severe Dementia. The young westernized princes have no respect to the US government of neocons, and what they see are blatant errors in judgment, wrong global policies and mismanagement of the Saudi sovereign wealth funds.
Saudis and GCC elites became unpredictable and erratic in eyes of Washington neocons as well. While spreading chaos and instabilities in the Arab world as well as in Europe seemed to be along the line of neocons’ delusional thinking, it was done without much of consultation and/or permission from their imperial master. And that was worrisome.
Political and diplomatic rout increased even more when young Prince begin to politically hedge Saudi relation with declining US regime by improving relationship with China and Russia after US acquiesced to deal with Iran, a regional enemy of Saudis and militarily superior to them.
In this context the war in Syria has yet another meaning in a post-US ME settings when Saudis have to go all alone, surrounded by Israel and militarily strong, populous enemies of Iran and Turkey where Erdogan still considers Saudis as desert thieves that could derail his wet dream of new Ottoman empire he tries to rebuilt.
Hence Saudi interest is to build a new Saudi allied state among Sunnis of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, if feasible of Jordan, as well to build independently of the US, economic relations with Europe via developing of land/sea pipelines for Saudi crude routed avoiding Turkish territory. At this point Saudi regime is highly unstable and looming abdication of the King Salman for medical reasons may bring even more open infighting and possible reversal of the socio-economic reforms that are being contemplated now, including their policies regarding cheap oil and Syrian war.
So what is the role of Saudis in the Syrian conflict? What do they want and whom they support?
The strategic role of Saudi in the Syrian war is first of all to prevent Turkey from taking over political/military control of the east/north-east areas via their proxy groups of Islamist Turkmen, Turkish right-wing extremists/nationalists and other Syrian Arab tribes and to stop Iraqi army and Shia militia from taking over West-Central Iraq and hence thwart an attempt to increase their influence over ethnic Sunni Arab lands within Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.
They count on simmering conflict to continue waiting until Turkish army exhausting itself fighting Kurds in Turkey and elsewhere, until Assad regime and Iraqi Shia government are weakened fighting terrorists of Al-Qaeda and ISIL GCC supports and/or funds.
Saudis will truly sit down to a negotiating table when all the players are ready to accept partition of the Iraq and Syria into sectarian statelets under Saudi political umbrella, exactly the same division Saudis are pushing in Yemen as a part of Riyadh palace revolution.
Saudis under the cover of GCC countries that directly buying US and Russian weapons such as TOW and AA missiles for terrorists of al-Qaeda affiliates as well as transferring the US military support to ISIL, a CIA outfit, not directly under Saudi control.
So what do Saudis bring to negotiating table in Geneva?
Not much, stalling, obfuscation, obstruction and slowing down SAA military operations under guise of cease-fire, humanitarian crisis etc., aimed for buying more time for their proxy armies to regroup and strengthen. Hence, they will be against any status-quo binding agreement legitimizing current military situation and territorial control, since their goal is to bleed all the parties in this chess game with guns.
And Saudis are ready to fight to the last terrorist they can find and equip with a gun and suicide vest regarding of what US stance may be, since they lost strategic trust in the Washington administration as a guardian of their interests.
POLITICAL MOSAIC OF SYRIAN WAR: Part IV. EUROPE, US & ISRAEL.
is coming up soon.
SOUTH FRONT: Russian coordination with YPG military in planning for closing of last route for weapon supplies for ISIL from Turkey, a move that is likely to prompt Turkish invasion in Syria to secure a buffer and instigate open conflict with YPG and Russians and ??? Americans supporting YPG? It’s a mad house.
SANA TV 2 English news:
In Vadia (east Aleppo), SAA found large number of terrorists murdered by their own commanders for treason or refusing to fight.
Fighting West of liberated Kuweirs Air Base.
Dilapidated Soviet era T72 tank fighting western sponsored terrorism in Syria.
Daily occurrence in Syria, terrorists attack on civilians in Homs and there is nothing in MSM.
Warning:18+; War deaths of ISIL terrorists.
PYD not invited for Geneva talks on Syria future. What can go wrong without major player at the table?
Even Israelis admit that Turkey is buying stolen oil from ISIL.
Sheik Mishkeen finally liberated:
Syrian women in military training.
French Air force bombed something. May be those very guys they handed over some weapons last year. Fog of war?
A terrorist with injured hand or it was a bad spring is threatening Putin or western devil with his wonder-weapon somewhere in Idlib province.
Hezbollah fighters in Syrian mountains near Turkish border.
FSA/terrorists morale collapses resulting hysterical rants against their puppet masters in the west.
Didn’t give us enough weapons, Didn’t give us enough money, Didn’t give us enough food, Didn’t give us as many wives as we want to have sex with. Allah, condemn them to eternal hell for such a phony support, God willing, . Those terrorist welfare queens are morons that were used, abused, in other words fucked up and discarded in American way making a big mistake not dying in the process.
YEMEN: Mountain ambush of Saudi army by Houti Islamists in an Afghan style.
South Front on Yemen.
Lessons of good behavior and respect for African immigrants from women in Finland.