I found a post entitled “Week Thirteen of the Russian Intervention in Syria: Debunking The Lies” By The Saker recently published on ICH, to be very valuable in putting into proper perspective a role of Russia in this conflict, her political motivation, and impact of direct Russian military intervention on the geopolitical situation in Syria and greater Middle East in the context of some sensible objectives achievable militarily and politically by Russian engagement.
I like Saker’s realism and I agree that the war itself is far from over or any decisive breakthrough on the ground but he seems to ignore special weight of political equation that Russian intervention substantially changed. What I mean is that Russians “hope” or plan for political solution and/or military circumstances, short of unlikely “overwhelming” victory in the battlefield where the war would no longer need to be fought and that would be an ultimate accomplishment of the wider political objective of the very limited intervention, embarked upon ultimately to stop the war.
Why would it be even possible considering fanatical Islamists and their equally fanatical and despotic sponsors? Because, in contrast to all the MSM propaganda, there was never civil war in Syria driven by deep internal conflicts although they exist . Instead, it was a clandestine foreign invasion organized by CIA assets positioned within in Assad regime and hence, beside misguided and desperate Islamic youth from Europe and MENA there are mostly foreign mercenaries of US-Turkey-Saudi alliance who fight for money and/or fame.
Syrians no longer want to fight for foreign terrorists except when threatened or coerced. True 2011 Syrian “revolutionaries” who believed in change, no longer see beauty into which all those ugly hills of war, misery and dark death suppose to dissolve and instead are eking for return of, however unsatisfactory, social order of the past.
Already over 50% of European volunteers of ISIL fled or were killed facing reality of senseless death in the God forsaken desperate land for benefit of corrupted commanders who are more interested in sex slaves than teachings of Mohamed or a global Caliphate BS, violating very basic canons of Islam while claiming religious authority.
Thousands of ISIL fighters, EU citizen came back home on the wave of MENA refuges, disillusioned about the Islamic revolution they believed in, now alienated from their radical European Muslim communities as well, the communities who insidiously sent them to die as a sacrifice for their faith and as a payoff for Saudi money and now consider them cowards. Ironically, Syrian war experience brought to these disenfranchised youth reality of corrupting effects of power everywhere under guise of any religious or other authority and hence, now they constitute least terrorist threat while they are now being hunted in Europe the most. Some realized that they no longer fit anywhere.
More and more news from ISIL comes out, although not many spectacular Hollywood style video clips, about beheading of ISIL fighters and local commanders by their own leaders for treason, desertion as well engagement in infighting among different factions of terrorists for food, money, ammunition or sex slaves since western support for them is being innovately disrupted by Russian precision bombs. All of that is further destroying fighting morale among terrorists clearly observed for last two months.
As the Saker correctly pointed out, the logistics is a key but Russians already made big strive to disrupt it and the pain is being felt in Ankara and Riyadh resonating with Washington winning about peace i.e. SOG “Safe Our Guys” whose sons and daughters are still classmates of neocon spawn in some Washington D.C. private school.
What’s adding to confusion is, although not unexpected, inconsistent and wavy position of the US regarding political solution for Syrian conflict, the solution they trying hard to avoid. Adding to chaos is apparent official US distancing from some more outrageous and erratic moves by Turkey and Saudis. The first is trying to bring final solution to Kurdish minority problem in Turkey i.e. extermination and subjugation under the guise of the war on terror and the other is trying to solve their Royal power struggle between new King and Yemeni branch of ruling family, while taxing the Saudi economy, all aware of collapse of global demand and futility of any potential oil productions cuts to control the market prices. Both not interested in any solution to the problem they created.
However, what The Saker seems to miss is a larger picture, which is necessary to consider if we want to predict chances of ending the Syrian war anytime soon.
Whether or not Russia aimed for it, in reality only termination or substantial weakening of the US imperial rule in the middle East may be necessary condition if truly peaceful and stable solution is to be found involving Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Turkey, Saudis, Israel and Russia. And that is problematic since it is a global geopolitical issue of US world hegemony and the fate of Israel.
In other words we may be looking at Lebanon-like political/military pat (too weak to win but to strong to lose) similar to their seventeen-year western instigated war, economically and potentially politically bleeding power players including Russia for decades with no true peace for Syrian people in sight.
The Saker’s post on ICH.
Latest SOUTH FRONT update of developments in Syria.
Syrian female journalist (Sunni) from Raqqa executed some days ago by ISIL for criticizing the administrative rule of Islamic State officials:
Kurds female soldiers in North Aleppo are fighting with air support from Russians.
Fighting in North Latakia:
Homs in winter:
Hama: new villages under control of SAA. Found bomb making facility of al-Nusra;
Precision weapon of terrorists, capable of hitting a building from 100 feet away every time, missile trajectory calculation are made with a tablet app. Available at your friendly app store. As we see for safety, fighters have to be farther from the cannon than the target or they become cannon fodder.
(Warning: 18+) Ambush of ISIL fighter by Kurds north of Mosul
(Warning: 18+) More ISIL terrorist killed, some young boys some of European descent, in Jebhel Mahul:
Another leader, Abu Rateb, of terrorist group Ahrar al-Sham
was assassinated in ambush. The big question is by whom. Is it a manifestation of more infighting among terrorist leadership as reported previously?
An illustration of Russian-Syrian military tactics in play. After liberating Kuweirs air base south-east of Aleppo about two months ago, SAA avoided direct confrontation with ISIL stronghold of Deir Hafer and instead moved north toward Al- Bab, logistics hub threatening supply lines for both Deir hafer and East Aleppo area ISIL fighters.
ISIL terrorist captured, given food and water although Geneva Convention does not apply.
What Saudi Arabia did not learn from Soviets in Afghanistan; never go into the mountains in columns of armor vehicles unless you want to lose them:
Here you have imperial confidence killer. After Soviet era surface to air missile shot down Qatari F-16 over Saudi Airspace with little media attention, now Soviet era anti-tank missile destroyed several American Abrams M1A1 of Saudi army invading Yemen. Soviets built them to last.
More on Saudi aggression in Yemen;
More love fest in Turkey: