Again Russian canons of war applied to seemingly irrational fanatical terrorists proved effective again. The local cease fire or evacuation deals that are part of the Russian war tactics adopted by SAA paid off handsomely, so by now about half of the territory taken back from terrorists by SAA and allies were gained via some deals between local commanders in the field bypassing the higher command, and in the process saved lives of many terrorists and introduced confusion and mistrust among different factions or even among ISIL commanders, some of who were recently beheaded because of deals they made with SAA or even Russians to save their groups from instant annihilation. With Baghdadi injured, convalescing in Ankara, the true picture of unified ISIL command is foggy at best and at worset already disintegrated into local fronts where commanders had to make deals will everybody to maintain their logistical supplies, weapons and money to pay the terrorists. Many of groups that previously attached themselves to ISIL lured by their money and Western connections for weapon supplies now deserted the ISIL and declared themselves as moderate, even making deals with Russians not to be bombed as long as they would not attack SAA.
While only 10-15% of the tankertrucks and well infrastructure was destroyed, ¾ of all oil transports in tankertrucks stopped since Kurds imposed higher tolls and drivers demanded so much pay that it would wipe out any ISIL profits and hence small “business” took over, small trucks, private cars, even donkeys are use to smuggle oil or gasoline.
With this revenue source severely depleted ISIL turned into robbery, theft and kidnapping for ransom, drug trade exploded trying to make up for the shortfall but not to avail.
Terrorist are paid, fed and supplied with weapons erratically with low quality materiel. This is massively changing the attitude of Sunni tribal leadership who supported ISIL when they monetarily benefited and were promised money and influence after now doubtful Islamic state victory. More and more tribal leaders side with Assad and join forces with SAA.
The plan I described in
(10/18/2015) SYRIAN WAR UPDATE: HOW WE FIGHT; RUSSIAN EDITION.
seems to work perfectly causing confusion among the terrorist leadership who’s acting very rationally being cut off from western support trying to save their skins but before that they would not hesitate to spread more terror, they were paid for, and blow up small army of desperate young people brainwashed into Islamic ecstasy of opulence and 40 virgin sexual orgy at the side of Mahomet in heavens.
But internal disintegration of ISIL without decisive total defeat is not a solution but a problem for Assad who would have to deal with intense terrorism in Syria for decades to come even without direct support from the west and allies, due to the fanciful hubris ISIL leadership built all those years. And hence, they will surely resist the rational decision to dismantle and go underground. I guess like any other politicians who promised too much and delivered too little they are relactant to admit reality of the situation since by that they would have to submit their heads under knife of angry constituency of fellow terrorist. They would rather sacrifice last poor soul before they make their own run to the exit.
Without massive injection of weapons and money and/or Turkish invasion of the north of Syria, ISIL and other groups will surely slide into military and political disintegration and likely escape under their sponsors’ wings in Washington DC where they came from.
After Homs and Yarmouk another local truce and evacuation of rebels from areas near Lebanon border.
More Smuggling of oil in Iraq
Oil tankertrucks destroyed.
SOUTH FRONT recent developments:
SANA, Government TV:
Another Assad’s weapon amnesty.
More then 8000 terrorists with families are allowed to leave Yarmouk and other areas south of Damascus.
Kurds progressed in the north:
Alloush has been just killed in East Ghouta with other commanders from various areas.
An interesting interview with late Alloush, commander of twelve thousand strong Army of Islam, conducted by neocon associated Daily Beast. After being pounded by Russian warplanes he distances himself from ISIL and Al-Qaeda and seems to advocate sort of democracy by technocrats, a utopian solution for benefit of US propagandists to justify massive US material support for the terrorists who as a part of moderate political program, vow to wipe out all Christians and Alawites as soon as they topple Assad.
SAA Nafiz Asadullah Republican Guard Squad in Action against Islamic State terrorists in Sina’aa neighborhood.
Hama, SAA attack escaping terrorists.
Dam in Tishrin 70 miles south from Kobani strategic communication hub – connecting Jarablus and Raqqa.
ISIL Terrorists trapped in Tishrin:
An interesting take of growing international role of Russia and its backup namely nuclear strategic forces prepared for flexible and proportional response to the aggression against Russia and Russian forces abroad. In other words new tough sheriff is in town.
YEMEN ballistic weapons hit ARAMCO oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. All out war continues.